Capital pressure forces businesses to accelerate stock issuance

Real estate and construction companies are stepping up mobilisation to reduce debt and maintain projects, but the wave of large stock supply is posing dilution risks and testing the market's absorption.

Call for capital from the stock market

Real estate and construction businesses are returning to the stock market to find capital, when high borrowing costs and narrowing bond windows force them to restructure their balance sheets math.

A series of large-scale issuance plans were presented to shareholders during this year's general meeting, reflecting the urgent need for cash flow. The goal is not only to finance new projects but also to handle debt and strengthen the financial foundation.

Fecon Joint Stock Company is an example. The enterprise plans to mobilise nearly 875 billion VND through three share issuances. More than 610 billion VND of this amount will be used to pay off short-term debt, the rest will supplement working capital and invest in equipment.

Phat Dat Real Estate Development Joint Stock Company also plans to offer nearly 200 million shares, expected to earn about 1,996 billion VND. Most of the capital will be poured into the Da Nang Centre Point project, while another part will be used to buy back shares and supplement operating capital.

On a larger scale, Gelex Infrastructure Joint Stock Company is preparing to privately issue a maximum of 100 million shares, with an expected amount of about VND 3,330 billion. All capital is expected to be used to repay debt and restructure finances, instead of expanding new investment.

Meanwhile, Hoa Binh Construction Group chose to swap debt into shares, issuing nearly 47 million shares to handle debt of more than 469 billion VND.

The total value of capital mobilisation through share issuance and IPO approved by the general meeting of shareholders of businesses in 2026 is expected to reach about 289,500 billion VND. Photo: Hoang Anh

Will the "ghost" of dilution return?

According to Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, Industry Analysis Director at Kafi Securities, capital will continue to be the "key" that determines the recovery and growth rate of the real estate market in the coming years. come. As projects are increasingly expanded in scale, from several thousand to tens of thousands of billions of dong, the capital needs of businesses also increase accordingly.

In that context, according to Mr. Huy, the positive signal is that monetary policy is being operated in a more flexible direction, gradually harmonizing the goals of controlling risks and promoting growth. That helps real estate businesses have more expectations about their ability to access capital.

"However, as the need for capital becomes increasingly greater, bank credit can hardly be the only "float", but bonds and stocks will be two important capital channels for the next stage of development of the industry", he emphasized.

However, Mr. Huy assessed that the bond door is no longer as open as in the 2020 - 2021 period. After market fluctuations, investors have become significantly more cautious. Instead of just looking at interest rates, they carefully evaluate the efficiency of capital use, project legality, sales ability, operating cash flow and debt repayment capacity of the business.

In other words, the bond market is shifting from a game of trust to a game of capacity and transparency. This makes raising capital more challenging, especially for small-scale businesses or businesses that have not yet built a strong enough position.

On the contrary, the stock market is emerging as a promising source of medium and long-term capital. After the exciting wave of IPOs and capital increases of securities companies in 2025, the expectation of market upgrade is opening a new story for real estate businesses.

"If Vietnam officially enters the emerging market group and attracts stronger foreign capital flows, not only will the valuation level be raised, but real estate businesses will also have more opportunities to mobilise large-scale resources, creating a solid financial foundation to welcome the new growth cycle," Mr. Huy said.

From a broader perspective, in the context that businesses are promoting capital raising on the stock market, the question is whether the market's absorption in the second half of 2026 can keep up with the issuance momentum?

According to FiinGroup statistics, about 70% of the issuance plans of businesses across the market in 2026 have not yet been implemented by the end of May. This means that the amount of new shares will focus on appearing in the remaining months of the year.

In other words, the market is at risk of having to absorb the largest supply of stocks in many years.

New release volume. Source: FiinPro-X Platform

More notably, the ratio of new shares issued to the total number of outstanding shares is expected to reach 17.1%, the highest level in recent years.

Specifically, according to FiinGroup, the total volume of new shares expected to be brought to the market, including capital increase issuance, stock splits and stock dividends, is estimated at about 48.2 billion shares, an increase of 26% over the previous year.

The amount of shares arising from stock splits and dividend payments alone accounts for nearly 29 billion units. In contrast, the expected volume of equity issuance is more than 19.4 billion shares, an increase of 91.6% over the same period.

"In the context that market liquidity has not recovered strongly, foreign investors continue to be net sellers and profit growth shows signs of being more differentiated among industry groups, the large supply of stocks about to be brought to the market may increase dilution risks as well as pressure on valuation levels", FiinGroup commented.

However, from an optimistic perspective, Mr. Truong Hien Phuong, Senior Director of KIS Vietnam Securities, said that the assessment that the pressure to raise equity capital will increase sharply from now until the end of the year is not really accurate.

According to him, capital increase depends greatly on the business needs as well as the capital use plan of each enterprise. Businesses cannot issue shares just to raise money and leave it there. Each capital increase must be accompanied by a clear capital use plan, project feasibility and implementation ability in a business context that always has many potential variables such as geopolitical conflicts, raw material price fluctuations or market changes.

"The business leadership itself must also carefully calculate the efficiency of capital use and responsibility to shareholders. Therefore, capital increase cannot be considered a cyclical or 'rescheduled' activity", Mr. Phuong commented.

Explaining further, this expert said that an approved capital increase plan does not necessarily mean it will be implemented. Enterprises only deploy it when they have a feasible plan and really need that capital for production, business or investment activities.

According to him, in addition to mobilising equity capital, businesses also have many other channels to access capital, especially loans on the money market. Therefore, it is impossible to conclude solely based on the approved plans that the pressure to issue shares will explode in the near future.

According to data from FiinPro-X Platform updated as of May 25, the total value of capital mobilisation through share issuance and IPO approved by the general meeting of shareholders of businesses in 2026 is expected to reach about VND 289,500 billion. This scale not only skyrockets 86.5% compared to the actual amount of capital mobilised in 2025, but also far exceeds the average level of the last 5 years, becoming the highest level since the stock market boom in 2021.

---

Source: TheLeader — theleader.vn. The article is reposted for the purpose of sharing knowledge for the founder and investor community in the ecosystem HCM VIF.